Los Angeles FC — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
67.8%
Home win
Los Angeles FC
X
20.4%
Draw
W2
11.9%
Away win
Austin FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X88.1%
Both teams to score
Yes56.0%
Totals 2.5
Over63.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.1% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Goal distribution model
Los Angeles FC × Austin FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.1%
0:1
2.2%
0:2
1.6%
0:3
0.5%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.5%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
3.8%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
10.4%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
8.2%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
4.8%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.3%
5:1
2.1%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.4%
2:19.7%
1:19.5%
3:08.2%
3:17.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away FC Dallas 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:3
- 10.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home San Diego FC 3:3
- 20.09.2026 away FC Dallas 0:0
- 13.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 2:1
- 10.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
This season: Los Angeles FC at home vs Austin FC away
| Metric | Los Angeles FC · at home | Austin FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–3 | 3–4–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 2.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Los Angeles FC wins2
Draws2
Austin FC wins2
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 22.03.2026 Austin FC 0:0 Los Angeles FC
- 03.11.2025 Austin FC 1:4 Los Angeles FC
- 30.10.2025 Los Angeles FC 2:1 Austin FC
- 13.10.2025 Austin FC 1:0 Los Angeles FC
- 15.03.2025 Los Angeles FC 0:1 Austin FC
- 19.09.2024 Los Angeles FC 1:1 Austin FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
| W2 | was 6.50 → now 7.50 |
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