Real Salt Lake — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.9%
Home win
Real Salt Lake
X
23.8%
Draw
W2
29.3%
Away win
San Jose Earthquakes
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.2%
Both teams to score
Yes68.1%
Totals 2.5
Over67.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.7% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Goal distribution model
Real Salt Lake × San Jose Earthquakes
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
3.7%
0:2
3.6%
0:3
1.8%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
5.1%
1:1
10.2%
1:2
7.0%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.4%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.9%
2:1
9.0%
2:2
6.8%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
5.9%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.2%
2:19.0%
1:27.0%
2:26.8%
2:05.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home New England Revolution 3:0
- 24.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New York City 0:2
- 10.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Portland Timbers 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Houston Dynamo 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away San Diego FC 3:2
- 06.09.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
This season: Real Salt Lake at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | Real Salt Lake · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–4 | 7–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.93 | 1.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.43 | 1.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Real Salt Lake wins3
Draws0
San Jose Earthquakes wins3
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 27.07.2025 Real Salt Lake 2:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 23.02.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 4:0 Real Salt Lake
- 06.10.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 0:1 Real Salt Lake
- 25.08.2024 Real Salt Lake 0:2 San Jose Earthquakes
- 17.09.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 2:1 Real Salt Lake
- 23.04.2023 Real Salt Lake 3:1 San Jose Earthquakes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.91 → now 2.05 |
| X | was 3.75 → now 3.90 |
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.20 |
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