Samsunspor — Goztepe Izmir: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.1% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Goztep 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home Galatasaray 4:1
- 27.04.2026 away Alanyaspor 3:2
- 19.04.2026 home Besiktas 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Samsunspor 0:3
- 09.05.2026 home Gaziantep 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:1
- 25.04.2026 home Antalyaspor 2:0
- 18.04.2026 away Kocaelispor 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Samsunspor 3:0 Goztepe Izmir
- 21.12.2025 Goztepe Izmir 2:0 Samsunspor
- 03.03.2025 Goztepe Izmir 2:2 Samsunspor
- 28.09.2024 Samsunspor 4:3 Goztepe Izmir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Samsunspor meet Goztepe Izmir in a Super Lig match that looks relatively balanced, although the available assessment gives Samsunspor a slight edge at home. The confidence behind that lean is moderate rather than decisive, so the fixture appears open to more than one outcome. The expected character is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with attacking moments but not necessarily a consistently high tempo or a large number of goals.
The outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, making that aspect difficult to separate in advance. A draw remains a realistic possibility, while Samsunspor’s home advantage gives them a narrow path to taking control of the game. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1 to Samsunspor, and 1-0 to Samsunspor. Overall, the assessment points toward protection for the home side in the result market, but without enough separation between the teams to describe the match as one-sided.
What matters before kick-off
Opening matchday finale
Samsunspor host Goztepe SK at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadium in the final fixture of the opening round of the 2026-27 Turkish Super Lig season.
Previous head-to-head meeting
The two sides met at the same venue on the final day of the previous Super Lig season in May 2026, when Samsunspor secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Goztepe.
Goztepe injury concerns
Goztepe have several injury absentees with Nevzat Uzel, Ibrahim Sabra and Furkan Bayir ruled out, while new signing Noah Sonko Sundberg remains a doubt.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.