Genclerbirligi SK — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 33.5% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 85.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genclerbirligi SK face a difficult assignment against Fenerbahce Istanbul, who are clearly the stronger side in this matchup. The available assessment gives Fenerbahce Istanbul a meaningful advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive before kickoff. Genclerbirligi SK will need to remain disciplined and limit the visitors’ opportunities if they are to keep the contest balanced.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, with several plausible scorelines involving two or more Fenerbahce Istanbul goals. However, whether both teams find the net is less clear, making that aspect of the match finely balanced. Overall, the analytical signal points toward an away win, while the range of likely outcomes indicates that Genclerbirligi SK could still make the match competitive, particularly if they avoid conceding early.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.