Match intelligence

Genclerbirligi SK — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026

League: Super Lig (Turkey) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Genclerbirligi SK2
:
1Fenerbahce Istanbul
Locked signal W2 Probability 64.7% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 14.6% Home win Genclerbirligi SK
X 20.7% Draw
W2 64.7% Away win Fenerbahce Istanbul
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X282.7%
Both teams to score
Yes52.5%
Totals 2.5
Over54.7%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X39.8%
1277.5%
X282.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No52.5% / 47.5%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.9% / 6.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 78.5% / 21.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 54.7% / 45.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 32.4% / 67.6%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.4% / 83.6%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.1% / 92.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Genclerbirligi SK × Fenerbahce Istanbul
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.1%
0:1 10.5%
0:2 10.6%
0:3 6.8%
0:4 3.3%
0:5 1.3%
1
1:0 4.9%
1:1 10.7%
1:2 9.9%
1:3 6.4%
1:4 3.1%
1:5 1.2%
2
2:0 2.5%
2:1 4.8%
2:2 4.7%
2:3 3.0%
2:4 1.4%
2:5 0.6%
3
3:0 0.8%
3:1 1.5%
3:2 1.5%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.4%
4:2 0.3%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
0:210.6%
0:110.5%
1:29.9%
0:36.8%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 away Trabzonspor 3:0
  • 09.05.2026 home Kasimpasa 3:2
  • 03.05.2026 away Karagumruk 0:1
  • 26.04.2026 home Kocaelispor 1:0
  • 18.04.2026 home Galatasaray 1:2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 home Eyupspor 3:3
  • 09.05.2026 away Konyaspor 3:0
  • 02.05.2026 home Buyuksehyr 3:1
  • 26.04.2026 away Galatasaray 0:3
  • 17.04.2026 home Rizespor 2:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Genclerbirligi SK wins1
Draws1
Fenerbahce Istanbul wins4
Goals per match4.33
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
  • 09.02.2026 Fenerbahce Istanbul 3:1 Genclerbirligi SK
  • 31.08.2025 Genclerbirligi SK 1:3 Fenerbahce Istanbul
  • 14.03.2021 Fenerbahce Istanbul 1:2 Genclerbirligi SK
  • 21.11.2020 Genclerbirligi SK 1:5 Fenerbahce Istanbul
  • 07.07.2020 Genclerbirligi SK 1:1 Fenerbahce Istanbul
  • 06.12.2019 Fenerbahce Istanbul 5:2 Genclerbirligi SK

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Genclerbirligi SK face Fenerbahce Istanbul in a Super Lig meeting where the visitors appear clearly stronger on the available indicators. The assessment carries moderate confidence, so the difference in projected quality should be viewed as meaningful rather than decisive. Fenerbahce Istanbul are the more likely side to control the match and create the better opportunities, while Genclerbirligi SK may need to rely on disciplined defending and efficient attacking transitions.

The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game. A Fenerbahce Istanbul victory with a controlled margin is the central expectation, although a draw remains a plausible alternative. The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, suggesting that Genclerbirligi SK have a reasonable chance of finding a response even if they spend long periods under pressure. Overall, the matchup gives Fenerbahce Istanbul the clearer edge, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for a competitive contest rather than an entirely one-sided performance.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Fenerbahce's European qualification

Fenerbahce enters the Süper Lig season opener following qualification in the UEFA Champions League, having defeated Sturm Graz 3-0 on aggregate.

Match fact

Süper Lig season opener in Ankara

Fenerbahce kicks off its 2026-27 Turkish Süper Lig campaign with an away fixture against Genclerbirligi at the Eryaman Stadium in Ankara.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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