Gaziantep FK — Alanyaspor: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.0% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gaziantep FK face Alanyaspor in a Super Lig contest that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with Gaziantep FK holding only a slight contextual edge through the 1X market signal. That points toward a match where home advantage may matter, but not enough to make the hosts clear favourites. The moderate confidence level also reflects the narrow gap between the teams rather than a strong directional prediction.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 among the likely scorelines. Those outcomes suggest that Gaziantep FK could have enough control to avoid defeat, while Alanyaspor remain capable of creating a competitive match. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, described as a coin flip, so the scoring pattern is less certain than the overall balance. A disciplined start and efficient finishing in key moments could be decisive in what should be a tight encounter.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.