Kasimpasa Istanbul — Trabzonspor: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.1% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Kasimpasa Istanbul face Trabzonspor in the Super Lig, with the visitors holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The signal points toward Trabzonspor avoiding defeat, although the outlook does not suggest a one-sided contest. Kasimpasa Istanbul remain capable of making the match competitive, and the balance of possible outcomes includes a draw as well as a narrow Trabzonspor victory.
The scoring expectation is for a medium-scoring game, while both teams scoring is considered difficult to separate. That leaves room for several match patterns, from a level contest to a close away win. Kasimpasa Istanbul will look to use home advantage to challenge the visitors, but Trabzonspor enter the fixture with the stronger result profile in this assessment. Overall, there is a slight edge for the visitors, expressed with a high level of confidence, while the most cautious interpretation is that Trabzonspor should avoid defeat.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.