Kasimpasa Istanbul — Trabzonspor: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.7% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 75.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Galatasaray 1:0
- 09.05.2026 away Genclerbirligi 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Kocaelispor 1:1
- 24.04.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:4
- 19.04.2026 home Alanyaspor 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Genclerbirligi 0:3
- 09.05.2026 away Besiktas 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Goztep 1:1
- 27.04.2026 away Konyaspor 1:2
- 19.04.2026 home Buyuksehyr 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.01.2026 Trabzonspor 2:1 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 18.08.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 0:1 Trabzonspor
- 05.05.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:1 Trabzonspor
- 06.12.2024 Trabzonspor 2:2 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 29.01.2024 Trabzonspor 2:3 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 01.09.2023 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:5 Trabzonspor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kasimpasa Istanbul face Trabzonspor in a Super Lig meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall outlook points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with Kasimpasa Istanbul carrying enough attacking potential to remain involved. Trabzonspor, however, appear better placed to control the important phases and make the most of their opportunities.
A medium-scoring game is expected, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open match with periods of pressure at both ends rather than a cautious stalemate. Kasimpasa Istanbul should not be dismissed, particularly if they can turn their attacking moments into early pressure, but Trabzonspor have the stronger overall signal. The visitors therefore have the clearer route to avoiding defeat, with a draw also a credible outcome in a closely contested fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Season Opener
The match between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadium opens the 2026–27 Trendyol Süper Lig season for both clubs.
Trabzonspor Squad Absences
Trabzonspor entered the match missing Arseniy Batagov, Tim Jabol-Folcarelli, Ernest Muçi, and Okay Yokuşlu due to injuries.
Kasımpaşa Availability
Ahead of the match, defender Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi was Kasımpaşa's only expected injury absence.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.