Istanbul Basaksehir — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Gaziantep 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Samsunspor 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Fenerbahce 1:3
- 24.04.2026 home Kasimpasa 4:0
- 19.04.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Antalyaspor 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Karagumruk 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Kasimpasa 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Genclerbirligi 0:1
- 18.04.2026 home Goztep 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 06.04.2026 Kocaelispor 0:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 31.10.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:0 Kocaelispor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir hold a slight edge over Kocaelispor ahead of their Super Lig meeting. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring contest, although the confidence behind the home advantage is low. That suggests Istanbul Basaksehir may have the stronger overall position, but the match remains open to different developments rather than following a clearly defined pattern.
The possibility of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, making it difficult to identify a reliable expectation in that area. The main scoreline indications include a 1:1 draw, alongside narrow Istanbul Basaksehir wins such as 1:0 or 2:0. These options reflect a contest in which the hosts have a modest advantage, while Kocaelispor remain capable of keeping the game competitive. Overall, the available signals favour Istanbul Basaksehir, but only by a small margin, with a close match more plausible than a decisive outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig opening round fixture
İstanbul Başakşehir host Kocaelispor on 16 August 2026 at the Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadium in the opening round of the Süper Lig season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.