Istanbul Basaksehir — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir face Kocaelispor in the Super Lig on 16 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The moderate confidence level suggests that Istanbul Basaksehir should enter as the stronger side, although the match still leaves room for a more competitive outcome than the overall balance might imply.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:0 and 2:0 among the most likely scorelines, while 1:1 is also considered a plausible result. That range points to a match in which Istanbul Basaksehir may control enough of the contest to create the better opportunities, but Kocaelispor remain capable of keeping the margin narrow. Whether both teams score is viewed as finely balanced, so the main distinction lies in the hosts' overall edge rather than a clear expectation of an open game.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.