Samsunspor — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.4% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 83.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Samsunspor
5th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Rizespor 2:0
- 17.08.2026 home Goztep 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Goztep 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home Galatasaray 4:1
Fenerbahce Istanbul
10th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
- 15.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Eyupspor 3:3
- 09.05.2026 away Konyaspor 3:0
- 02.05.2026 home Buyuksehyr 3:1
This season: Samsunspor at home vs Fenerbahce Istanbul away
| Metric | Samsunspor · at home | Fenerbahce Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.74 | 2.90 |
| xG against per match | 1.89 | 1.19 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.03.2026 Fenerbahce Istanbul 3:2 Samsunspor
- 05.10.2025 Samsunspor 0:0 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 16.03.2025 Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:0 Samsunspor
- 20.10.2024 Samsunspor 2:2 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 21.01.2024 Fenerbahce Istanbul 1:1 Samsunspor
- 21.08.2023 Samsunspor 0:2 Fenerbahce Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Samsunspor face Fenerbahce Istanbul in a match where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Fenerbahce Istanbul appear better positioned to control the match, particularly if they can establish authority in possession and turn that control into consistent chances. Samsunspor will need to remain compact and make their opportunities count, especially during periods when the visitors impose pressure.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring contest rather than an open goal fest. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so the match could develop in more than one direction depending on the effectiveness of each side in the final third. A draw such as 1:1 is a credible possibility, while 0:2 and 1:2 reflect the stronger case for Fenerbahce Istanbul. Overall, the visitors have the advantage, but Samsunspor retain a realistic route to staying competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Samsunspor's unbeaten league start
Samsunspor opened their Süper Lig season unbeaten in their first two matches, drawing 3-3 with Goztepe before securing a 2-0 victory over Caykur Rizespor.
Fenerbahce's recent form and results
Fenerbahce enter the match following a 4-2 victory against Konyaspor in the Süper Lig and a 2-1 away win over Lyon in European qualifying.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.