Samsunspor — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.4% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 83.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Samsunspor face Fenerbahce Istanbul in a match where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Fenerbahce Istanbul appear better positioned to control the match, particularly if they can establish authority in possession and turn that control into consistent chances. Samsunspor will need to remain compact and make their opportunities count, especially during periods when the visitors impose pressure.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring contest rather than an open goal fest. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so the match could develop in more than one direction depending on the effectiveness of each side in the final third. A draw such as 1:1 is a credible possibility, while 0:2 and 1:2 reflect the stronger case for Fenerbahce Istanbul. Overall, the visitors have the advantage, but Samsunspor retain a realistic route to staying competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Samsunspor's unbeaten league start
Samsunspor opened their Süper Lig season unbeaten in their first two matches, drawing 3-3 with Goztepe before securing a 2-0 victory over Caykur Rizespor.
Fenerbahce's recent form and results
Fenerbahce enter the match following a 4-2 victory against Konyaspor in the Süper Lig and a 2-1 away win over Lyon in European qualifying.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.