Istanbul Basaksehir — Kasimpasa Istanbul: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.6% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir have a slight edge over Kasimpasa Istanbul in this Super Lig meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but the gap between the teams is limited.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects some uncertainty about how the game will develop, while the view on both teams scoring remains evenly balanced. Istanbul Basaksehir may have enough to shape the match in their favour, but Kasimpasa Istanbul remain capable of contributing to a competitive outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir's league start
Istanbul Basaksehir enter matchday three of the Turkish Super Lig having secured a 2-0 win over Kocaelispor before suffering a 2-1 defeat against Trabzonspor in their opening two fixtures.
Kasimpasa's unbeaten start
Kasimpasa remain undefeated in their opening two Super Lig fixtures, recording a draw with Trabzonspor followed by a 1-0 away victory against Corum FK.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.