Istanbul Basaksehir — Kasimpasa Istanbul: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.6% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Istanbul Basaksehir
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Gaziantep 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Samsunspor 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Fenerbahce 1:3
Kasimpasa Istanbul
8th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Corum 1:0
- 15.08.2026 home Trabzonspor 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Galatasaray 1:0
- 09.05.2026 away Genclerbirligi 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Kocaelispor 1:1
This season: Istanbul Basaksehir at home vs Kasimpasa Istanbul away
| Metric | Istanbul Basaksehir · at home | Kasimpasa Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.96 | 0.31 |
| xG against per match | 0.44 | 1.10 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.04.2026 Istanbul Basaksehir 4:0 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 29.11.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:3 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18.05.2025 Kasimpasa Istanbul 2:3 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23.12.2024 Istanbul Basaksehir 2:2 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 05.05.2024 Istanbul Basaksehir 4:1 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 09.01.2024 Kasimpasa Istanbul 0:3 Istanbul Basaksehir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir have a slight edge over Kasimpasa Istanbul in this Super Lig meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but the gap between the teams is limited.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects some uncertainty about how the game will develop, while the view on both teams scoring remains evenly balanced. Istanbul Basaksehir may have enough to shape the match in their favour, but Kasimpasa Istanbul remain capable of contributing to a competitive outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir's league start
Istanbul Basaksehir enter matchday three of the Turkish Super Lig having secured a 2-0 win over Kocaelispor before suffering a 2-1 defeat against Trabzonspor in their opening two fixtures.
Kasimpasa's unbeaten start
Kasimpasa remain undefeated in their opening two Super Lig fixtures, recording a draw with Trabzonspor followed by a 1-0 away victory against Corum FK.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.