Besiktas Istanbul — Corum FK: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 82.2% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul enter this Super Lig fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. Corum FK face a difficult task against the hosts, with the overall balance pointing toward Besiktas Istanbul having the better chance of controlling the match and creating the more consistent attacking threat.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open goal fest. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop either through Besiktas Istanbul maintaining a clean advantage or Corum FK finding a way to contribute. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 1:0 and 2:1, all of which reflect a home-side edge without indicating an overwhelming margin. For Corum FK, defensive discipline and efficiency in limited attacking moments will be important, while Besiktas Istanbul will look to turn their superiority into clear chances early in the game.
What matters before kick-off
Match preparation completed
Beşiktaş completed tactical training under head coach Vincenzo Italiano at the BJK Nevzat Demir Facilities ahead of hosting Çorum FK in Week 3 of the Süper Lig.
Çorum FK's early season results
In their opening two Süper Lig matches, Çorum FK drew 2-2 away at Galatasaray before conceding a 1-0 home defeat against Kasımpaşa.
Çorum FK's top-flight debut
Çorum FK are competing in Turkey's top division for the first time in their history, making this their first ever Süper Lig encounter against Beşiktaş.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.