Samsunspor — Corum FK: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.2% / 65.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.00 → now 2.15 |
| W2 | was 3.50 → now 3.10 |
Match preview
Samsunspor have a moderate edge over Corum FK in this Super Lig meeting, although the outlook remains relatively balanced. The available assessment points towards protection against an away win, making a Samsunspor victory or draw the more supported overall result. This is not a decisive gap, so the match could remain competitive if Corum FK manage to stay organised and limit the hosts’ attacking opportunities.
The expected character is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 among the plausible scorelines. That range suggests Samsunspor may have enough influence to create a narrow advantage, but not necessarily enough to control the contest throughout. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, leaving the game open to either a close home success or a draw. The central theme is therefore a slight home edge within a match that could be decided by small moments rather than a clear difference between the sides.
What matters before kick-off
Samsunspor team news
Ahead of the match against Çorum FK, Samsunspor press officer Suat Çakır stated that Marius Mouandilmadji and Elayis Tavsan returned to training, while Fatih Kaya, Afonso Sousa, Tanguy Coulibaly, Oskar Ohlenschlaeger, and Jaures Assoumou remain sidelined due to injuries.
Çorum FK's recent result
In round 4, Çorum FK earned a 3-0 home victory over Eyüpspor to secure their first league win of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.