Galatasaray Istanbul — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.4% |
| 12 | 86.2% | |
| X2 | 20.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Galatasaray Istanbul
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Buyuksehyr 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Goztep 3:2
- 21.08.2026 away Erzurumspor 4:0
- 14.08.2026 home Corum 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Kasimpasa 0:1
Kocaelispor
3rd place · 9 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Samsunspor 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Konyaspor 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Amedspor 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Antalyaspor 0:1
This season: Galatasaray Istanbul at home vs Kocaelispor away
| Metric | Galatasaray Istanbul · at home | Kocaelispor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.91 | 0.61 |
| xG against per match | 0.62 | 1.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 12.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Galatasaray Istanbul 1:1 Kocaelispor
- 09.11.2025 Kocaelispor 1:0 Galatasaray Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Galatasaray Istanbul come into this Super Lig fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. Kocaelispor face a demanding task against a team whose attacking outlook points toward an open, high-scoring contest. The balance of the analysis strongly favours Galatasaray Istanbul, although the match still needs to be managed carefully from the opening stages.
The most prominent scoreline projections are 2-0 and 3-0, with 1-0 also considered plausible. These outcomes reflect Galatasaray Istanbul’s advantage while allowing for different levels of resistance from Kocaelispor. The expectation that both teams will score is finely balanced, so Kocaelispor’s attacking contribution remains the main uncertainty in an otherwise favourable outlook for the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Galatasaray Recent League Victory
Galatasaray enter the Süper Lig fixture following a 3-2 away win against İstanbul Başakşehir in domestic league play.
Kocaelispor Winning Streak
Kocaelispor come into the match on a three-game winning run, including a 1-0 home victory against Samsunspor.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.