Gaziantep FK — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.1% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 83.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gaziantep FK face Fenerbahce Istanbul in a Super Lig meeting where the visitors hold a clear advantage, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The overall assessment points toward Fenerbahce Istanbul controlling more of the match, with their greater strength likely to shape possession, territory and the quality of chances created.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with several meaningful attacking moments without necessarily becoming an open shootout. Whether both teams score is viewed as evenly balanced, so Gaziantep FK remain capable of contributing to the attacking picture, but their presence on the scoresheet is not a strong expectation. The main signal favours an away win, while the range of plausible outcomes also includes a draw, indicating that Fenerbahce Istanbul have the stronger profile but still need to perform effectively across the match.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.