Gaziantep FK — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.1% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 85.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Gaziantep FK
10th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Goztep 4:2
- 29.08.2026 home Rizespor 1:2
- 23.08.2026 away Eyupspor 1:0
- 15.08.2026 home Alanyaspor 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Buyuksehyr 1:2
Fenerbahce Istanbul
12th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Besiktas 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Samsunspor 2:0
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
- 15.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Eyupspor 3:3
This season: Gaziantep FK at home vs Fenerbahce Istanbul away
| Metric | Gaziantep FK · at home | Fenerbahce Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.04 | 2.23 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.03.2026 Fenerbahce Istanbul 4:1 Gaziantep FK
- 27.10.2025 Gaziantep FK 0:4 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 26.04.2025 Gaziantep FK 1:3 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 02.12.2024 Fenerbahce Istanbul 3:1 Gaziantep FK
- 14.01.2024 Gaziantep FK 0:1 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 13.08.2023 Fenerbahce Istanbul 2:1 Gaziantep FK
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gaziantep FK face Fenerbahce Istanbul in a Super Lig meeting where the visitors hold a clear advantage, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The overall assessment points toward Fenerbahce Istanbul controlling more of the match, with their greater strength likely to shape possession, territory and the quality of chances created.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with several meaningful attacking moments without necessarily becoming an open shootout. Whether both teams score is viewed as evenly balanced, so Gaziantep FK remain capable of contributing to the attacking picture, but their presence on the scoresheet is not a strong expectation. The main signal favours an away win, while the range of plausible outcomes also includes a draw, indicating that Fenerbahce Istanbul have the stronger profile but still need to perform effectively across the match.
What matters before kick-off
Fenerbahçe face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig matchday 5
Fenerbahçe travel to face Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadium on 14 September 2026 in matchday 5 of the Süper Lig, officiated by referee Mehmet Türkmen.
Fenerbahçe announce 22-man squad for Gaziantep FK trip
Fenerbahçe traveled to Gaziantep with a 22-player squad that includes goalkeepers Ederson Moraes and Mert Günok, as well as midfielders N'Golo Kanté and Matteo Guendouzi.
Fenerbahçe return to domestic duty following European tie
Fenerbahçe head into the fixture against Gaziantep FK following a 1-1 home draw against Italian club Roma in the UEFA Champions League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.