Alanyaspor — Goztepe Izmir: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Alanyaspor
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Rizespor 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Eyupspor 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Besiktas 1:0
- 15.08.2026 away Gaziantep 1:1
- 16.05.2026 away Karagumruk 1:2
Goztepe Izmir
17th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 home Gaziantep 2:4
- 29.08.2026 away Galatasaray 2:3
- 23.08.2026 home Genclerbirligi 0:1
- 17.08.2026 away Samsunspor 3:3
- 16.05.2026 away Samsunspor 0:3
This season: Alanyaspor at home vs Goztepe Izmir away
| Metric | Alanyaspor · at home | Goztepe Izmir · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.54 | 1.26 |
| xG against per match | 0.74 | 2.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Goztepe Izmir 2:2 Alanyaspor
- 19.10.2025 Alanyaspor 1:0 Goztepe Izmir
- 02.02.2025 Goztepe Izmir 0:1 Alanyaspor
- 23.08.2024 Alanyaspor 1:1 Goztepe Izmir
- 19.03.2022 Goztepe Izmir 0:2 Alanyaspor
- 31.10.2021 Alanyaspor 2:2 Goztepe Izmir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Alanyaspor have a slight edge over Goztepe Izmir in this Super Lig meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clearly one-sided match. The outlook suggests a medium-scoring game, with the home side holding a narrow advantage in the overall assessment.
The scoring pattern remains difficult to separate, as both teams scoring is considered an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths through the match: a balanced 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 win for Alanyaspor, or a more open 2:1 home victory. Overall, the analysis favours Alanyaspor avoiding defeat, while the possibility of a draw remains significant.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Super Lig Results
Alanyaspor enter the fixture following a 1-0 away victory over Rizespor in their previous league match, whereas Goztepe suffered a 4-2 home defeat against Gaziantep.
Alanyaspor's Unbeaten Streak Against Goztepe
Alanyaspor are unbeaten in their last seven head-to-head matches against Goztepe.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.