Alanyaspor — Goztepe Izmir: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Alanyaspor have a slight edge over Goztepe Izmir in this Super Lig meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clearly one-sided match. The outlook suggests a medium-scoring game, with the home side holding a narrow advantage in the overall assessment.
The scoring pattern remains difficult to separate, as both teams scoring is considered an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths through the match: a balanced 1:1 draw, a narrow 1:0 win for Alanyaspor, or a more open 2:1 home victory. Overall, the analysis favours Alanyaspor avoiding defeat, while the possibility of a draw remains significant.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Super Lig Results
Alanyaspor enter the fixture following a 1-0 away victory over Rizespor in their previous league match, whereas Goztepe suffered a 4-2 home defeat against Gaziantep.
Alanyaspor's Unbeaten Streak Against Goztepe
Alanyaspor are unbeaten in their last seven head-to-head matches against Goztepe.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.