Genclerbirligi SK — Kasimpasa Istanbul: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genclerbirligi SK meet Kasimpasa Istanbul in the Super Lig on 13 September 2026. The assessment gives Genclerbirligi SK a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the match remains competitive rather than pointing to a decisive home advantage. The available signal favours a home win or draw, leaving Kasimpasa Istanbul with a realistic opportunity to take something from the game.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, but the expectation that both teams will score is finely balanced. That uncertainty is reflected in the main scorelines under consideration: 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0. Overall, the matchup leans toward a narrow result or a draw, with limited separation between the teams and no strong basis for expecting an open, one-sided contest.
What matters before kick-off
Kasimpasa Unbeaten Start
Kasimpasa enter the fixture unbeaten across their opening four Turkish Super Lig matches of the season, having recorded one victory and three draws.
Genclerbirligi Recent Result
Genclerbirligi enter the match seeking a response after suffering a 5-0 away defeat against Trabzonspor in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.