Match intelligence

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler — Istanbul Basaksehir: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026

League: Super Lig (Turkey) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler5
:
0Istanbul Basaksehir
Locked signal 1X Probability 65.0% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 38.6% Home win Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
X 26.4% Draw
W2 35.0% Away win Istanbul Basaksehir
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1273.6%
Both teams to score
Yes61.9%
Totals 2.5
Over58.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X65.0%
1273.6%
X261.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No61.9% / 38.1%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.0% / 6.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 81.6% / 18.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 58.3% / 41.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 35.9% / 64.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.9% / 81.1%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.7% / 91.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler × Istanbul Basaksehir
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.0%
0:1 6.0%
0:2 5.3%
0:3 2.6%
0:4 0.9%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 6.4%
1:1 12.2%
1:2 8.2%
1:3 4.0%
1:4 1.5%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 5.9%
2:1 8.6%
2:2 6.4%
2:3 3.1%
2:4 1.1%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 3.0%
3:1 4.5%
3:2 3.3%
3:3 1.6%
3:4 0.6%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 1.2%
4:1 1.7%
4:2 1.3%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.4%
5:1 0.5%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
2:18.6%
1:28.2%
1:06.4%
2:26.4%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

9th place · 7 pts after 4

Last 4 matches · latest first

  • 06.09.2026 away Kasimpasa 2:2
  • 31.08.2026 home Trabzonspor 2:1
  • 24.08.2026 away Kocaelispor 0:2
  • 16.08.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0

Istanbul Basaksehir

13th place · 4 pts after 4

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 04.09.2026 home Galatasaray 2:3
  • 30.08.2026 home Kasimpasa 1:1
  • 23.08.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:2
  • 16.08.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:0
  • 16.05.2026 away Gaziantep 2:1

This season: Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at home vs Istanbul Basaksehir away

Metric Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · at home Istanbul Basaksehir · away
Matches21
W–D–L2–0–00–0–1
Goals scored per match2.501.00
Goals conceded per match0.502.00
xG for per match1.951.95
xG against per match0.542.27
Shots on target per match6.004.00
Corners per match3.001.00
Over 2.5 goals100%100%
Both teams scored50%100%

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler and Istanbul Basaksehir meet in the Super Lig in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a balanced game in which the result may depend on small differences in execution and control during key phases.

The match is expected to produce a moderate level of scoring, with both Amed Sportif Faaliyetler and Istanbul Basaksehir likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest without indicating a one-sided attacking display. A cautious preference remains with the home side in the result market, meaning Amed Sportif Faaliyetler have a slight edge in avoiding defeat, although the overall confidence is moderate and Istanbul Basaksehir remain fully capable of taking points.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Amedspor's historic season

Amedspor are competing in the Turkish Süper Lig for the first time in their history.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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