Konyaspor — Trabzonspor: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.5% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 75.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.3% / 62.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Konyaspor face Trabzonspor in a Super Lig meeting that looks finely balanced but gives the visitors a slight edge. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, with Trabzonspor rated more likely to avoid defeat than Konyaspor. That advantage is meaningful, although the overall picture does not suggest a one-sided contest.
Both teams are likely to score, which keeps a draw firmly in consideration alongside a Trabzonspor victory. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2, reflecting a game in which Konyaspor should have opportunities but may find it difficult to control the match for long periods. Trabzonspor’s stronger outlook makes the visitors the marginally preferable side, while the expected balance of goals points toward an open and competitive encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Trabzonspor entered Matchday 5 following a dominant win
Trabzonspor prepared for their Matchday 5 fixture away to Konyaspor on the back of a 5-0 victory over Gençlerbirliği, in which Paul Onuachu scored twice.
Konyaspor seek to snap a four-game losing streak
The hosts enter the Matchday 5 encounter having lost their first four Süper Lig matches of the season, including a 1-0 away defeat to Erzurumspor in their previous outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.