Besiktas Istanbul — Erzurumspor FK: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 87.1% | |
| X2 | 18.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Besiktas Istanbul
2nd place · 9 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Corum 6:2
- 23.08.2026 away Alanyaspor 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Eyupspor 1:0
- 15.05.2026 away Rizespor 2:2
Erzurumspor FK
15th place · 4 pts after 4Last 4 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Konyaspor 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:1
- 21.08.2026 home Galatasaray 0:4
- 16.08.2026 away Amedspor 0:3
This season: Besiktas Istanbul at home vs Erzurumspor FK away
| Metric | Besiktas Istanbul · at home | Erzurumspor FK · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.08 | 0.55 |
| xG against per match | 0.35 | 1.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul go into this Super Lig fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Erzurumspor FK face a demanding task against a team whose overall profile points toward control and sustained attacking pressure. The available assessment gives the hosts a distinct edge, although it does not remove the possibility of an uneven contest in which the visitors have moments of resistance.
The match is also projected to have a high-scoring character. The most likely scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, indicating that Besiktas Istanbul are expected to create enough opportunities to reach multiple goals. At the same time, whether both teams score is viewed as finely balanced, so Erzurumspor FK cannot be assumed either to find the net or to remain without chances. Overall, the analytical signal favours a home win, with the main question being whether the visitors can make the game competitive while limiting the hosts' attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig matchday 5 fixture
Beşiktaş host Erzurumspor FK at the Tüpraş Stadium in Round 5 of the 2026–27 Turkish Süper Lig season.
Erzurumspor's top-flight return
Erzurumspor returned to the Turkish Süper Lig for the 2026–27 season after a 5-year absence from the top flight.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.