Besiktas Istanbul — Erzurumspor FK: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 87.1% | |
| X2 | 18.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
| W2 | was 11.00 → now 12.00 |
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul go into this Super Lig fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Erzurumspor FK face a demanding task against a team whose overall profile points toward control and sustained attacking pressure. The available assessment gives the hosts a distinct edge, although it does not remove the possibility of an uneven contest in which the visitors have moments of resistance.
The match is also projected to have a high-scoring character. The most likely scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, indicating that Besiktas Istanbul are expected to create enough opportunities to reach multiple goals. At the same time, whether both teams score is viewed as finely balanced, so Erzurumspor FK cannot be assumed either to find the net or to remain without chances. Overall, the analytical signal favours a home win, with the main question being whether the visitors can make the game competitive while limiting the hosts' attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig matchday 5 fixture
Beşiktaş host Erzurumspor FK at the Tüpraş Stadium in Round 5 of the 2026–27 Turkish Süper Lig season.
Erzurumspor's top-flight return
Erzurumspor returned to the Turkish Süper Lig for the 2026–27 season after a 5-year absence from the top flight.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.