Saint Louis City SC — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:1
- 13.09.2026 home Minnesota United 4:2
- 10.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:2
- 20.09.2026 away Minnesota United 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 10.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 06.09.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
This season: Saint Louis City SC at home vs Los Angeles Galaxy away
| Metric | Saint Louis City SC · at home | Los Angeles Galaxy · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–2 | 4–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.15 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 79% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Los Angeles Galaxy 1:3 Saint Louis City SC
- 14.06.2025 Saint Louis City SC 3:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 09.03.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy 0:3 Saint Louis City SC
- 01.09.2024 Saint Louis City SC 2:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 17.03.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy 3:3 Saint Louis City SC
- 11.09.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy 2:2 Saint Louis City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles Galaxy in an MLS fixture that points towards an open and potentially high-scoring contest. The available assessment gives the home side a clear advantage, although the level of confidence remains moderate. Saint Louis City SC appear better positioned to control the match and make their home advantage count, but the outlook does not rule out a competitive response from Los Angeles Galaxy.
Goals at both ends are a plausible feature of this encounter. The scoring outlook suggests that neither defence can necessarily be expected to keep the opposition quiet, making the balance between attacking ambition and defensive discipline particularly important. Los Angeles Galaxy may have opportunities to contribute to the scoreline even if Saint Louis City SC hold the stronger overall position. A match with several goals is a reasonable expectation based on the available indicators.
The projected scorelines range from a draw to a home victory, with Saint Louis City SC favoured to emerge ahead in the more decisive scenarios. The central expectation is therefore a competitive game in which the hosts have the stronger case, while both teams retain a plausible route to scoring.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.