Colorado Rapids — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.0% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.5% / 77.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 2:3
- 20.09.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:3
- 13.09.2026 home CF Montreal 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 0:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Portland Timbers 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Houston Dynamo 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away San Diego FC 3:2
- 06.09.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
This season: Colorado Rapids at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | Colorado Rapids · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 9–1–3 | 7–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 54% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2025 Colorado Rapids 0:2 San Jose Earthquakes
- 16.03.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 1:2 Colorado Rapids
- 12.05.2024 Colorado Rapids 2:3 San Jose Earthquakes
- 14.04.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 0:3 Colorado Rapids
- 04.06.2023 Colorado Rapids 0:0 San Jose Earthquakes
- 12.03.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 1:0 Colorado Rapids
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Colorado Rapids host San Jose Earthquakes at home, and the pre-match picture suggests a narrow advantage for the hosts, though the matchup is more layered than that framing implies. The strongest argument for Colorado Rapids comes from their home record this season: 9 wins in 13 matches at their own ground, with 25 goals scored against 12 conceded. That is a solid platform, even if their recent overall form has been uneven, with just 1 win across the last five fixtures and 10 goals conceded in that stretch.
San Jose Earthquakes arrive in sharper form, unbeaten in their last five with 3 wins and 2 draws, and they travel well, having collected 7 away wins from 13 outings. The head-to-head also offers them encouragement: in the six most recent meetings the visitors have edged it with 3 wins to 2, and the last encounter ended 0-2 in favour of San Jose Earthquakes.
Weighing the home base against the visitors' momentum and recent dominance in this fixture, the hosts hold a slight edge rather than a decisive one. Both sides have been scoring regularly, which points towards an open, goal-involved contest.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.