Sabah Masazir — Slavia Prague: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
25.3%
Home win
Sabah Masazir
X
24.0%
Draw
W2
50.7%
Away win
Slavia Prague
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.0%
Both teams to score
Yes63.0%
Totals 2.5
Over62.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.3% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 74.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Goal distribution model
Sabah Masazir × Slavia Prague
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
6.8%
0:2
7.3%
0:3
4.7%
0:4
2.2%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
4.4%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
6.1%
1:4
2.9%
1:5
1.1%
2
2:0
3.4%
2:1
6.5%
2:2
6.2%
2:3
4.0%
2:4
1.9%
2:5
0.7%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.8%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.9%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
1:29.6%
0:27.3%
0:16.8%
2:16.5%
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.50 → now 3.70 |
| X | was 3.75 → now 3.90 |
| W2 | was 2.00 → now 1.91 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.