Racing Club De Lens — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.5%
Home win
Racing Club De Lens
X
25.0%
Draw
W2
37.5%
Away win
Sporting CP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.0%
Both teams to score
Yes65.4%
Totals 2.5
Over63.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.5% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Goal distribution model
Racing Club De Lens × Sporting CP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
5.4%
0:2
5.1%
0:3
2.8%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
5.4%
1:1
11.1%
1:2
8.3%
1:3
4.5%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
6.8%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
4.5%
3:2
3.7%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.8%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.1%
1:28.3%
2:18.3%
2:26.8%
0:15.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Monaco 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Lorient 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Strasbourg 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Auxerre 5:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Arouca 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Famalicao 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Nacional 2:0
- 28.08.2026 away Rio Ave 4:0
- 22.08.2026 home Alverca 3:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.