RSC Anderlecht — PAOK Thessaloniki: Win probabilities, 13.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.7% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
RSC Anderlecht and PAOK Thessaloniki meet in the UEFA Europa League, Qualification, in a contest that appears evenly matched. The confidence level is moderate, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring game, suggesting that the match could develop through a balanced exchange rather than being decided by a single dominant phase.
Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the possibility of goals at both ends remains open without being a strong expectation. The market signal gives PAOK Thessaloniki a slight edge in avoiding defeat, although the draw remains a realistic outcome. Scorelines such as 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 fit the assessment, highlighting a match where narrow margins may prove decisive. RSC Anderlecht will need to make home advantage count, while PAOK Thessaloniki can approach the tie with confidence that a controlled performance could keep them competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Anderlecht Won the First Leg
In the first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round, Anderlecht secured a 1-0 victory over PAOK in Thessaloniki thanks to an early goal from Mihajlo Cvetkovic.
Anderlecht's Domestic Result Ahead of the Match
Ahead of the second leg against PAOK, Anderlecht earned a 2-1 victory against RAAL La Louviere in the Belgian First Division A on August 9.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.