Royal Charleroi SC — Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.8% |
| 12 | 76.4% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Royal Charleroi SC
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Lommel SK 1:0
- 09.08.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away Standard 2:0
- 19.05.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Westerlo 0:1
Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
14th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Standard 3:3
- 09.08.2026 away Gent 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away St Truiden 0:3
- 21.05.2026 home Club Brugge 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Anderlecht 2:2
This season: Royal Charleroi SC at home vs Yellow-Red KV Mechelen away
| Metric | Royal Charleroi SC · at home | Yellow-Red KV Mechelen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.14 | 0.34 |
| xG against per match | 1.30 | 1.16 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.12.2025 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 1:0 Royal Charleroi SC
- 28.09.2025 Royal Charleroi SC 0:2 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
- 18.05.2025 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 1:1 Royal Charleroi SC
- 19.04.2025 Royal Charleroi SC 3:0 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
- 08.03.2025 Royal Charleroi SC 0:1 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen
- 31.08.2024 Yellow-Red KV Mechelen 5:2 Royal Charleroi SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Royal Charleroi SC have a slight edge over Yellow-Red KV Mechelen in this First Division A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a fairly open assessment rather than a decisive advantage. The available signals suggest a medium-scoring match, with neither side clearly separated from the other in overall outlook.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in several directions. A 1:1 draw is among the plausible scorelines, while 2:0 and 2:1 also reflect the modest preference toward Royal Charleroi SC. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can contain the hosts early and turn the match into a more even exchange.
What matters before kick-off
Trio returns for Charleroi
Charleroi welcome back Mohamed Koné, Cheick Keita, and Aurélien Scheidler from suspension. However, Parfait Guiagon remains unavailable for the fixture against KV Mechelen.
Recent high-scoring draw for Mechelen
KV Mechelen enter the match following a 3-3 draw against Standard Liège on August 16, where Myron van Brederode scored twice including a late stoppage-time penalty.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.