Club Brugge — Cercle Brugge: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.0% |
| 12 | 85.4% | |
| X2 | 23.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.0% / 24.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.3% / 78.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Club Brugge
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3:0
- 07.08.2026 home Kortrijk 3:0
- 24.05.2026 home Gent 5:0
- 21.05.2026 away Mechelen 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home St. Gilloise 5:0
Cercle Brugge
11th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.08.2026 home St Truiden 3:3
- 08.08.2026 away Standard 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away RAAL La Louviere 1:4
- 01.05.2026 home Waregem 2:3
- 24.04.2026 home Dender 2:1
This season: Club Brugge at home vs Cercle Brugge away
| Metric | Club Brugge · at home | Cercle Brugge · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.85 | 1.47 |
| xG against per match | 0.86 | 2.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 Cercle Brugge 1:2 Club Brugge
- 09.08.2025 Club Brugge 2:0 Cercle Brugge
- 09.03.2025 Cercle Brugge 1:3 Club Brugge
- 01.09.2024 Club Brugge 3:0 Cercle Brugge
- 26.05.2024 Club Brugge 0:0 Cercle Brugge
- 01.04.2024 Cercle Brugge 1:1 Club Brugge
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Club Brugge go into this First Division A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home win assessment. The attacking outlook also points towards a high-scoring match, suggesting that Club Brugge should have the greater influence in possession and create the more consistent pressure.
Cercle Brugge are nevertheless considered likely to score, so the visitors may pose a threat even if they are expected to spend longer periods defending. The projected scorelines include a range of home victories, from a controlled success to a more open result, indicating that the main question is likely to be the margin rather than which team holds the advantage. Overall, Club Brugge have the stronger profile, while Cercle Brugge retain enough attacking potential to contribute to the match.
What matters before kick-off
Form ahead of the derby
Club Brugge enter the derby against Cercle Brugge having won both of their opening two Belgian Pro League fixtures, including a 3-0 away win against OH Leuven on August 15, 2026. Cercle Brugge opened their league campaign with consecutive draws.
Dedicated Foundation Game
The Bruges derby at Jan Breydel Stadium is officially designated as the "Foundation Game" to mark the 20th anniversary of the Club Brugge Foundation. Pre-match celebrations feature a ceremonial lap around the pitch by 150 volunteers and project participants.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.