Lommel SK — KVC Westerlo: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.0% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.8% / 60.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.0% / 78.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lommel SK face KVC Westerlo in a First Division A meeting where the assessment gives the visitors a slight edge. The confidence is moderate rather than decisive, so the match appears open to more than one outcome. The strongest overall signal supports KVC Westerlo avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible possibility. This points to a contest in which the visitors may have the more favourable position, but not enough separation to expect a straightforward game.
The scoring outlook is for an active match, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination suggests Lommel SK should remain involved offensively even if KVC Westerlo are rated slightly higher in the outcome assessment. The balance between an away advantage and the expectation of goals makes a closely contested game plausible, with momentum potentially shifting between the sides. A result decided by narrow margins appears more consistent with the available indicators than a clearly one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Westerlo's previous match
In their previous league match, KVC Westerlo suffered a 3-2 defeat against Racing Genk after initially taking a 2-0 lead.
New signing for Westerlo
Ahead of the match, KVC Westerlo strengthened their attack by signing Swiss striker Felix Emmanuel Tsimba from Young Boys.
Lommel's top-flight return
Lommel SK returned to the Belgian top division after a 23-year absence, securing promotion through the play-offs and barrage matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.