KRC Genk — SK Beveren: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.5% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KRC Genk come into this First Division A meeting with a clear overall advantage over SK Beveren, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the hosts’ superiority should not be treated as decisive. The available assessment points towards a match in which KRC Genk are more likely to control the outcome, while SK Beveren retain enough attacking potential to make the contest competitive.
The expected profile is high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a narrow home victory a plausible reading of the match, particularly with 2-1 among the most likely scorelines. At the same time, 1-1 is also a prominent possibility, reflecting the uncertainty created by SK Beveren’s scoring prospects, while 2-0 represents a more controlled KRC Genk performance. Overall, the balance favours KRC Genk, but the visitors’ capacity to contribute offensively means the hosts may need to manage an open and demanding game.
What matters before kick-off
Previous Matchday Results
In round 3 of the Belgian Pro League, KRC Genk blew a three-goal lead in the final ten minutes to draw 4-4 against Antwerp. Meanwhile, SK Beveren suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Zulte Waregem in their previous league fixture.
Pre-season Match Between the Sides
During the summer 2026 pre-season preparations, KRC Genk defeated SK Beveren 2-1 in a friendly match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.