Match intelligence

Lommel SK — Royal Charleroi SC: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026

League: First Division A (Belgium) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Lommel SK0
:
1Royal Charleroi SC
Locked signal X2 Probability 72.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 27.3% Home win Lommel SK
X 27.3% Draw
W2 45.5% Away win Royal Charleroi SC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X272.7%
Both teams to score
Yes58.8%
Totals 2.5
Over55.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X54.5%
1272.7%
X272.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No58.8% / 41.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 92.9% / 7.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.7% / 20.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 55.0% / 45.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 32.6% / 67.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.5% / 83.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.2% / 92.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Lommel SK × Royal Charleroi SC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 7.1%
0:1 7.7%
0:2 7.6%
0:3 4.2%
0:4 1.7%
0:5 0.6%
1
1:0 5.4%
1:1 12.9%
1:2 9.4%
1:3 5.1%
1:4 2.1%
1:5 0.7%
2
2:0 4.3%
2:1 7.0%
2:2 5.8%
2:3 3.2%
2:4 1.3%
2:5 0.4%
3
3:0 1.8%
3:1 2.9%
3:2 2.4%
3:3 1.3%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.5%
4:1 0.9%
4:2 0.7%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.2%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.9%
1:29.4%
0:17.7%
0:27.6%
0:07.1%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Lommel SK host Royal Charleroi SC in a First Division A fixture on 16 August 2026. The available indicators point to a competitive, medium-scoring match, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a game in which neither side is expected to dominate for long periods, and the balance could remain open into the later stages.

Royal Charleroi SC hold a slight edge in the overall assessment, although the signal also leaves room for a draw. Lommel SK should have opportunities at home, particularly if they can turn their attacking moments into sustained pressure, while Royal Charleroi SC appear marginally better placed to take advantage of openings at the other end. A narrow away win or a scoring draw are the main possibilities indicated by the data.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Lommel SK City Football Group Ownership

Belgian club Lommel SK became part of the City Football Group network in May 2020 and plays its home fixtures at the Soevereinstadion in Lommel.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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