Royal Antwerp FC — Union Saint-Gilloise: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.4% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 82.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.3% / 76.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.00 → now 4.75 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
Royal Antwerp FC host Union Saint-Gilloise in a First Division A fixture that appears finely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The low confidence level suggests that this advantage is limited rather than decisive, leaving room for the match to develop in several directions. Neither side can be treated as clearly superior on the available information.
The game is expected to produce a medium-scoring contest, with both teams scoring remaining an open question. A 1-1 draw is one plausible outcome, while 0-2 and 1-2 also reflect the lean towards Union Saint-Gilloise. Royal Antwerp FC should still have opportunities on home ground, particularly if they can disrupt the visitors' attacking rhythm and avoid conceding early. Overall, Union Saint-Gilloise appear marginally better placed, but the narrow assessment points to a competitive match rather than a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Head-to-head streak
Union Saint-Gilloise entered the match undefeated in their previous five meetings against Royal Antwerp, recording four wins and one draw.
Union Saint-Gilloise's start to the season
Union Saint-Gilloise went undefeated through their opening six First Division A matches of the season, earning 16 points out of 18 and scoring 19 goals.
Royal Antwerp's league form
Royal Antwerp entered the seventh league round on a four-match winless run, following a 3-1 away loss to Club Brugge in their previous fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.