Riga FC — FC Kairat Almaty: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
51.9%
Home win
Riga FC
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
21.7%
Away win
FC Kairat Almaty
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.3%
Both teams to score
Yes52.5%
Totals 2.5
Over50.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.3% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Goal distribution model
Riga FC × FC Kairat Almaty
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.9%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
3.5%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.5%
1:1
12.6%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.6%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.6%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.4%
3:1
5.4%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.2%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.6%
1:010.5%
2:19.7%
2:09.6%
0:07.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Riga FC
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 away WKW ETO FC Gyor 1:1
- 06.08.2026 home WKW ETO FC Gyor 1:0
- 28.07.2026 home FK Vardar Skopje 5:2
FC Kairat Almaty
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 11.08.2026 home PFC Levski Sofia 0:1
- 04.08.2026 away PFC Levski Sofia 0:1
- 29.07.2026 home AC Omonia Nicosia 7:5
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.75 → now 4.20 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.