FC Lugano — FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
34.1%
Home win
FC Lugano
X
26.4%
Draw
W2
39.4%
Away win
FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.6%
Both teams to score
Yes62.4%
Totals 2.5
Over58.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.6% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Lugano × FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
6.3%
0:2
6.0%
0:3
3.1%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
5.7%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
3.4%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.5%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
1:28.7%
2:18.1%
2:26.4%
0:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
FC Lugano
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 away NSI Runavik 2:2
- 06.08.2026 home NSI Runavik 2:0
- 29.07.2026 away KF Dukagjini 5:1
FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 11.08.2026 home Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:2
- 04.08.2026 away Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC 0:1
- 29.07.2026 home Larne FC 5:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.25 → now 3.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.