KAA Gent — AGF Aarhus: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.8%
Home win
KAA Gent
X
21.0%
Draw
W2
17.1%
Away win
AGF Aarhus
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.9%
Both teams to score
Yes50.6%
Totals 2.5
Over54.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Goal distribution model
KAA Gent × AGF Aarhus
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.6%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
11.6%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
4.6%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
11.0%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
4.5%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.1%
3:1
6.4%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.4%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:011.6%
2:011.0%
1:110.0%
2:19.9%
3:07.1%
Odds movement
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.33 |
| W2 | was 4.75 → now 5.25 |
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