HNK Hajduk Split — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
17.2%
Home win
HNK Hajduk Split
X
19.2%
Draw
W2
63.6%
Away win
Ajax Amsterdam
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X282.8%
Both teams to score
Yes58.7%
Totals 2.5
Over64.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.4% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 82.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Goal distribution model
HNK Hajduk Split × Ajax Amsterdam
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.6%
0:1
8.3%
0:2
9.1%
0:3
6.8%
0:4
3.8%
0:5
1.7%
1
1:0
4.0%
1:1
8.7%
1:2
9.8%
1:3
7.3%
1:4
4.1%
1:5
1.8%
2
2:0
2.1%
2:1
4.7%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
2.2%
2:5
1.0%
3
3:0
0.8%
3:1
1.7%
3:2
1.9%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.8%
0:29.1%
1:18.7%
0:18.3%
1:37.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
HNK Hajduk Split
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 13.08.2026 home Vilnius FK Zalgiris 4:0
- 06.08.2026 away Vilnius FK Zalgiris 5:2
- 30.07.2026 away Pafos FC 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
- 12.09.2026 away For Sittard 5:1
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.00 → now 5.25 |
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 1.48 → now 1.53 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.