Match intelligence

Real Sociedad San Sebastian — RC Deportivo de A Coruna: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026

League: LaLiga (Spain) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Real Sociedad San Sebastian3
:
2RC Deportivo de A Coruna
Locked signal W1 Probability 60.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 60.3% Home win Real Sociedad San Sebastian
X 23.2% Draw
W2 16.5% Away win RC Deportivo de A Coruna
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X83.5%
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X83.5%
1276.8%
X239.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No55.6% / 44.4%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.0% / 6.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 81.4% / 18.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 58.0% / 42.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 35.6% / 64.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.7% / 81.3%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.5% / 91.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Real Sociedad San Sebastian × RC Deportivo de A Coruna
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.0%
0:1 3.7%
0:2 2.4%
0:3 0.8%
0:4 0.2%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 8.8%
1:1 11.0%
1:2 4.9%
1:3 1.6%
1:4 0.4%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 10.1%
2:1 10.0%
2:2 4.9%
2:3 1.6%
2:4 0.4%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 6.8%
3:1 6.7%
3:2 3.3%
3:3 1.1%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 3.5%
4:1 3.4%
4:2 1.7%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 1.4%
5:1 1.4%
5:2 0.7%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:010.1%
2:110.0%
1:08.8%
3:06.8%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026

Real Sociedad San Sebastian

8th place · 10 pts after 7

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
  • 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
  • 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
  • 03.09.2026 home Celta 0:0
  • 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1

RC Deportivo de A Coruna

7th place · 10 pts after 7

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 20.09.2026 home Betis 1:1
  • 16.09.2026 home Sevilla 0:1
  • 13.09.2026 away Getafe 1:1
  • 05.09.2026 away Villarreal 3:2
  • 30.08.2026 home Valencia 3:1

This season: Real Sociedad San Sebastian at home vs RC Deportivo de A Coruna away

Metric Real Sociedad San Sebastian · at home RC Deportivo de A Coruna · away
Matches33
W–D–L1–1–11–2–0
Goals scored per match0.671.67
Goals conceded per match1.331.33
xG for per match0.970.93
xG against per match1.061.31
Shots on target per match6.003.33
Corners per match9.004.00
Over 2.5 goals67%33%
Both teams scored33%100%

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

available assessment. The hosts are considered the stronger side, although the confidence level remains moderate rather than decisive. Playing at home supports their position in the matchup, but the overall outlook still leaves room for a competitive contest. The key expectation is that Real Sociedad San Sebastian will have the better opportunity to control the game and turn their advantage into a positive result.

The scoring outlook points toward a moderately productive match, with several plausible scenarios. A controlled home performance resulting in a 2-0 win or a more open 2-1 contest are both consistent with the assessment, while a 1-1 draw remains a credible alternative. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, making that aspect of the match relatively balanced. RC Deportivo de A Coruna will therefore retain a realistic opportunity to challenge the hosts, particularly if the game remains close. Overall, Real Sociedad San Sebastian have the stronger outlook, but the moderate confidence level suggests that the final result should not be treated as predetermined.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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