Deportivo Alaves — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 46.2% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 78.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Deportivo Alaves
6th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 15.09.2026 home Valencia 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Santander 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Osasuna 5:2
- 28.08.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
Atletico Madrid
2nd place · 16 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:1
- 16.09.2026 home Osasuna 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sociedad 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
This season: Deportivo Alaves at home vs Atletico Madrid away
| Metric | Deportivo Alaves · at home | Atletico Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.01.2026 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Deportivo Alaves
- 30.08.2025 Deportivo Alaves 1:1 Atletico Madrid
- 03.05.2025 Deportivo Alaves 0:0 Atletico Madrid
- 23.11.2024 Atletico Madrid 2:1 Deportivo Alaves
- 21.04.2024 Deportivo Alaves 2:0 Atletico Madrid
- 29.10.2023 Atletico Madrid 2:1 Deportivo Alaves
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves host Atletico Madrid in LaLiga sitting sixth in the table on eleven points from seven matches, with a solid home record of three wins and one defeat from four outings. The hosts have scored nine and conceded three on their own ground, and their recent form of two wins, a draw and two losses shows a side capable of producing results but still inconsistent. The underlying picture at home is more balanced than the raw record suggests, with chances created and allowed running at roughly the same rate.
Atletico Madrid arrive in second place with sixteen points from seven games, having taken four wins in their last five matches and scored twelve goals in that stretch. On the road they have two wins from three, and they have consistently created clearly more chances than they have conceded. The head-to-head also tilts their way: three wins to one from the last six meetings, with the most recent encounter ending 1-0 in Atletico Madrid's favour.
Taken together, the league standing, away profile and recent head-to-head point to a slight edge for the visitors, in what projects as a tight, medium-scoring contest where Deportivo Alaves have the tools to stay competitive.
What matters before kick-off
League standings
Heading into matchday 8 of LaLiga, Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in the standings with 16 points, while Deportivo Alaves occupy 6th place with 11 points.
Recent results
In their previous LaLiga fixture, Atletico Madrid secured a 2-1 home victory over Real Madrid, while Deportivo Alaves played out a 0-0 draw away against Athletic Club.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.