Malaga CF — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.0% |
| 12 | 70.2% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Malaga CF
20th place · 3 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Getafe 0:1
- 17.09.2026 home Villarreal 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Celta 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Levante 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Real Madrid 0:4
Espanyol Barcelona
15th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Elche 1:3
- 15.09.2026 away Vallecano 1:2
- 12.09.2026 away Osasuna 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Sevilla 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Sociedad 1:2
This season: Malaga CF at home vs Espanyol Barcelona away
| Metric | Malaga CF · at home | Espanyol Barcelona · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–1 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.81 | 1.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 02.05.2021 Espanyol Barcelona 3:0 Malaga CF
- 02.11.2020 Malaga CF 0:3 Espanyol Barcelona
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Malaga CF head into this LaLiga fixture rooted to the foot of the table, sitting 20th of 20 after seven rounds with just three points to their name. The recent run tells the same story: no wins in their last five, only two goals scored against nine conceded, and a home record this season that reads three played, zero wins, with four goals shipped. The underlying picture at their own ground, where they allow clearly more chances than they create, points to a side still searching for stability.
Espanyol Barcelona arrive in a steadier state, 15th in the standings with seven points, and although their recent form shows just one win in five, they have been more productive in front of goal. On the road they have taken a win from three outings, and their chance quality away from home is roughly level between creation and concession. The head-to-head record is also in their favour, with both prior meetings going their way, including a 3-0 win in 2021.
Taken together, the fundamentals suggest a slight edge for the visitors in a contest with moderate scoring potential. The teams look closely matched on paper, though Malaga CF's home fragility is the clearest tilt in the picture.
What matters before kick-off
Malaga's U-21 internationals return
Rafita and Chupe rejoined Malaga CF's first-team training after featuring in Spain U-21's 7-1 European Championship qualifier victory against Romania.
Espanyol squad updates ahead of Malaga match
Espanyol head coach Manolo González confirmed that Javi Puado was named in the 24-man squad to face Malaga CF, while international players Roberto Fernández, Vanja Drkušić, and Javi Hernández are fit to play.
Jose Salinas loan between the clubs
Left-back José Salinas joined Malaga CF on loan from Espanyol for the 2026/27 season under an agreement that includes an option to buy.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.