Real Madrid — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.4% |
| 12 | 85.2% | |
| X2 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Real Madrid
4th place · 15 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Ath Madrid 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Vallecano 4:1
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
Villarreal CF
11th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Levante 3:1
- 17.09.2026 away Malaga 3:1
- 14.09.2026 home Betis 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home La Coruna 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
This season: Real Madrid at home vs Villarreal CF away
| Metric | Real Madrid · at home | Villarreal CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.72 | 2.25 |
| xG against per match | 0.83 | 1.02 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Villarreal CF 0:2 Real Madrid
- 04.10.2025 Real Madrid 3:1 Villarreal CF
- 15.03.2025 Villarreal CF 1:2 Real Madrid
- 05.10.2024 Real Madrid 2:0 Villarreal CF
- 19.05.2024 Villarreal CF 4:4 Real Madrid
- 17.12.2023 Real Madrid 4:1 Villarreal CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Madrid arrive at this LaLiga meeting sitting fourth with 15 points from seven matches, and their home form is the most telling line in the dossier: three played at home this season, three won, twelve goals scored and only two conceded. Across all competitions the recent run reads L W W L W, so the mood is strong rather than untouchable, but at their own ground the hosts have been consistently sharper than their guests.
Villarreal CF travel in a more difficult shape, placed eleventh on 8 points. Their last five results tilt negative with two wins and three defeats, though on the road the picture is more balanced: one win, two draws and one loss from four away trips, with seven scored and six conceded. That profile suggests a side willing to play forward rather than sit deep, which fits with the chance-quality note that they create more than they concede when away.
The head-to-head weighs heavily too: six meetings, five Real Madrid wins, one draw, no Villarreal CF victories, with the last encounter a 0-2 for the visitors in 2026. Taken together, the hosts look clearly stronger, and an open, goal-friendly contest is the reasonable expectation.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.