Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.2% |
| 12 | 70.9% | |
| X2 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Rayo Vallecano
14th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Osasuna 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Santander 3:2
- 31.08.2026 away Barcelona 2:5
Athletic Bilbao
12th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Alaves 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Elche 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
This season: Rayo Vallecano at home vs Athletic Bilbao away
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano · at home | Athletic Bilbao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.25 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 1.38 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 25.08.2025 Athletic Bilbao 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 13.04.2025 Athletic Bilbao 3:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 01.12.2024 Rayo Vallecano 1:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 25.05.2024 Rayo Vallecano 0:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 02.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao 4:0 Rayo Vallecano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga with the sides sitting close together in the table, the hosts in 14th on 8 points from 7 matches and the visitors just above in 12th on 8 points from 6. At Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano have been solid so far, taking 2 wins and a draw from their 3 home outings, while Athletic Bilbao arrive with a steadier recent run of 2 wins and 2 draws across their last five fixtures. The qualitative read is that the teams are evenly matched, with a slight lean towards the away side.
The weight of history sits firmly with the visitors. Across the last six meetings between these clubs, Athletic Bilbao have won five, with one draw and no wins for Rayo Vallecano. The most recent encounter, however, finished 1-1, hinting that the gap on the day can narrow when they meet in Madrid.
Both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly enough to suggest a medium-scoring contest in which both are likely to find the net. Combined with Rayo Vallecano's unbeaten home start and Athletic Bilbao's historical dominance in the fixture, the double chance for the visitors looks like the clearest analytical signal.
What matters before kick-off
Nico Williams sidelined with thigh injury
Athletic Club winger Nico Williams was ruled out after sustaining a moderate left rectus femoris muscle injury while on international duty with Spain.
Augusto Batalla unavailable for Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano goalkeeper Augusto Batalla remains sidelined after undergoing surgery for a leg fracture suffered earlier in the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.