Match intelligence

Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Levante UD: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: LaLiga (Spain) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Real Sociedad San Sebastian2
:
1Levante UD
Locked signal BTTS Probability 63.5% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 62.8% Home win Real Sociedad San Sebastian
X 19.1% Draw
W2 18.1% Away win Levante UD
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X81.9%
Both teams to score
Yes63.5%
Totals 2.5
Over69.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X81.9%
1280.9%
X237.2%
Both teams to scoreYes/No63.5% / 36.5%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.0% / 3.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 87.2% / 12.8%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 69.0% / 31.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 47.6% / 52.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 28.5% / 71.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 15.0% / 85.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Real Sociedad San Sebastian × Levante UD
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.0%
0:1 3.3%
0:2 2.1%
0:3 0.8%
0:4 0.2%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 6.6%
1:1 8.2%
1:2 4.9%
1:3 2.0%
1:4 0.6%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 7.9%
2:1 9.5%
2:2 5.7%
2:3 2.3%
2:4 0.7%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 6.2%
3:1 7.5%
3:2 4.5%
3:3 1.8%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 3.6%
4:1 4.4%
4:2 2.6%
4:3 1.1%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 1.7%
5:1 2.1%
5:2 1.2%
5:3 0.5%
5:4 0.2%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.5%
1:18.2%
2:07.9%
3:17.5%
1:06.6%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Real Sociedad San Sebastian

5th place · 16 pts after 9

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 away Malaga 5:2
  • 11.10.2026 home La Coruna 3:2
  • 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
  • 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
  • 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2

Levante UD

14th place · 10 pts after 9

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 21.10.2026 home Ath Bilbao 3:1
  • 16.10.2026 away La Coruna 1:1
  • 12.10.2026 home Sevilla 3:3
  • 20.09.2026 away Villarreal 1:3
  • 13.09.2026 home Barcelona 2:4

This season: Real Sociedad San Sebastian at home vs Levante UD away

Metric Real Sociedad San Sebastian · at home Levante UD · away
Matches45
W–D–L2–1–10–3–2
Goals scored per match1.250.40
Goals conceded per match1.501.40
xG for per match1.090.77
xG against per match1.331.83
Shots on target per match5.501.80
Corners per match8.503.00
Over 2.5 goals75%40%
Both teams scored50%40%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Real Sociedad San Sebastian wins3
Draws1
Levante UD wins2
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
  • 04.04.2026 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2:0 Levante UD
  • 20.12.2025 Levante UD 1:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 06.05.2022 Levante UD 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 28.08.2021 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:0 Levante UD
  • 07.03.2021 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:0 Levante UD
  • 19.12.2020 Levante UD 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W1 was 1.60 → now 1.55
X was 4.50 → now 4.75
W2 was 4.75 → now 5.00
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Real Sociedad San Sebastian head into this LaLiga meeting with Levante UD in the stronger overall position, supported by a more consistent recent run and a higher place in the table. They have won four of their last five matches, scoring 14 goals in that sequence, and sit fifth with 16 points from nine games. Their attacking output suggests they can create problems for Levante, although conceding 11 goals across those five matches indicates that defensive control has not always matched their effectiveness going forward.

Levante UD arrive with a less convincing record, having managed one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five outings. Their away form is a particular concern: they have yet to win on the road this season, drawing three times and losing twice, while scoring only two goals in five away matches. They have also allowed more chances than they create away from home, which could give Real Sociedad San Sebastian opportunities to establish territorial control. The hosts, however, have not been entirely dominant at home, with two wins, one draw and one defeat in four games.

Overall, Real Sociedad San Sebastian hold a moderate edge, but Levante UD may still find opportunities to score. A competitive match with goals from both sides remains plausible, particularly if the hosts cannot tighten their defensive performance.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Major European win

Heading into this LaLiga match, Real Sociedad secured a 6-0 victory against Lillestrøm in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday.

Availability

Jon Aramburu returns to squad

Real Sociedad defender Jon Aramburu returned to the squad for the match against Levante after recovering from a leg injury.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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