FC Barcelona — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

FC Barcelona enter this LaLiga clash with Real Madrid in stronger overall form, having won their last five matches and scored 22 goals while conceding seven. Their home record is particularly impressive: four wins from four matches, with 17 goals scored and only four conceded. Sitting first in the league with 27 points from nine games, FC Barcelona have established a strong platform for this fixture. Their ability to create clearly more chances than they allow at home further supports the view that they hold a significant advantage.

Real Madrid arrive in competitive form themselves, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 13 goals in that period. However, their away record has been less convincing, with two wins and two defeats in four games, alongside six goals scored and six conceded. Third in the standings with 21 points, Real Madrid remain capable of posing a serious attacking threat, but their results on the road suggest greater vulnerability than their opponents have shown at home.

The recent head-to-head record points towards an entertaining contest, with both teams scoring in four of the last six meetings and five producing more than two goals. FC Barcelona also won the most recent encounter 2-0 in 2026. Overall, the hosts are clearly stronger on current evidence, although Real Madrid have enough attacking quality to make this a competitive, potentially high-scoring match.