Real Sociedad San Sebastian — AFC Bournemouth: Win probabilities, 17.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.0% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 72.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
- 07.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 03.09.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 26.08.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian and AFC Bournemouth meet in the UEFA Europa League in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. This suggests a game where control may shift between the teams rather than remain with one side throughout. The outcome profile also leaves room for a draw, while AFC Bournemouth have a slight edge in the broader result range.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That points toward an open but balanced encounter, where defensive lapses could be as influential as sustained attacking pressure. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflecting the narrow separation between the teams and the possibility of either side edging a close game. Overall, the forecast favours a competitive match with goals at both ends, but without a clearly established stronger team.
What matters before kick-off
Real Sociedad availability
Defenders Álvaro Odriozola and Igor Zubeldia miss the match due to injury. Additionally, defender Jon Aramburu is unavailable through suspension.
Bournemouth injuries
Bournemouth enter the fixture with several injury absentees, including Julián Araujo, Amine Adli, Veljko Milosavljevic, and Eli Junior Kroupi.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.