Crystal Palace — KKS Lech Poznan: Win probabilities, 17.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 83.1% | |
| X2 | 29.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
- 24.05.2026 home Arsenal 1:2
KKS Lech Poznan
Last 3 matches · latest first
- 14.08.2026 away KI Klaksvik 5:0
- 06.08.2026 home KI Klaksvik 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home AGF Aarhus 1:4
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Crystal Palace approach this UEFA Europa League meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over KKS Lech Poznan. The overall assessment points towards the hosts being the stronger side, although the gap is not presented as decisive. That suggests Crystal Palace should be expected to take the initiative, control more of the match, and create the more convincing attacking spells, particularly if they can establish pressure early.
The game is rated as potentially high-scoring, while the likelihood of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That combination leaves room for different match patterns: Crystal Palace could win without conceding, or KKS Lech Poznan could contribute to an open contest. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 2-1, and 1-0, all of which keep the home side ahead while reflecting varying levels of resistance from the visitors. Overall, the analytical signal favours a Crystal Palace victory, with a controlled home performance slightly more likely than a closely contested draw.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results before the match
Crystal Palace enter their Europa League opener following a 3-2 home defeat to Ipswich Town in the Premier League, while Lech Poznan were beaten 2-1 by Gornik Zabrze in the Ekstraklasa.
Crystal Palace team news
Crystal Palace manager Pierre Sage confirmed that Eddie Nketiah and Ismaila Sarr returned to training and could feature, while Jean-Philippe Mateta and captain Dean Henderson remain sidelined through injury.
First head-to-head meeting
This match marks the first-ever official head-to-head meeting between Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan, as well as Palace's first competitive fixture against Polish opposition.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.