Besiktas Istanbul — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 17.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.0% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Corum 6:2
- 23.08.2026 away Alanyaspor 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Eyupspor 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Paris FC 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
- 17.05.2026 home Rennes 3:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul hold a slight but meaningful edge over Olympique Marseille in this UEFA Europa League meeting. The balance of the assessment favours the home side, although the gap is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Home advantage gives Besiktas Istanbul an important platform, while Olympique Marseille remain capable of creating problems and keeping the match competitive.
The overall expectation is for an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That points towards an active game rather than a cautious battle, with attacking phases likely to shape the outcome. Besiktas Istanbul appear better placed to avoid defeat, but Olympique Marseille have enough threat to make the result uncertain until late in the match. The central question will be whether the hosts can turn their slight superiority into control without leaving space for the visitors to exploit.
What matters before kick-off
Beşiktaş Team News
Beşiktaş head coach Vincenzo Italiano confirmed that Leandro Trossard will miss the match against Olympique Marseille due to pain.
Recent Form
Beşiktaş enter the Europa League opener following domestic victories over Fenerbahçe (2-1) and Erzurumspor (3-0). Olympique Marseille have won just one of their opening four Ligue 1 fixtures and suffered three consecutive defeats in all competitions.
Head-to-Head Record
Beşiktaş and Olympique Marseille have previously met in European competition twice, during the 2007/08 UEFA Champions League group stage, exchanging home wins (2-1 in Istanbul and 2-0 in Marseille).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.