Real Salt Lake — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.8% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 77.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 1.83 → now 1.75 |
Match preview
Real Salt Lake face Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS meeting that is expected to produce an open, high-scoring contest. The available indicators point to both teams finding the net, suggesting that neither defence is likely to control the match for long. Real Salt Lake should have opportunities at home, but the overall assessment gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC a slight edge.
The strongest market signal supports Vancouver Whitecaps FC avoiding defeat, rather than a decisive away win. The projected scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2, reflecting a competitive match with several plausible outcomes. With high confidence in the underlying assessment, Vancouver Whitecaps FC appear marginally better placed, although Real Salt Lake remain capable of making the game difficult and contributing to a close scoreline.
What matters before kick-off
Real Salt Lake's September home stretch
Real Salt Lake hosts Vancouver Whitecaps FC in the third of four consecutive Saturday home matches during September 2026.
Real Salt Lake's winless streak in MLS
Real Salt Lake enters the match against Vancouver Whitecaps FC seeking to break an 11-game winless streak in MLS regular-season play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.