Real Salt Lake — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.7% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.55 → now 2.15 |
| W2 | was 2.60 → now 3.10 |
Match preview
Real Salt Lake and New England Revolution appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, with no clear side holding a decisive advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be shaped by moments in both penalty areas rather than by sustained control from one team.
The stronger signal points toward an open, high-scoring game in which both Real Salt Lake and New England Revolution are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible scenario, although the match could also be decided by a narrow margin in either direction. The projected scorelines reflect that balance, ranging from a level result to close wins for either side. Overall, the most reasonable expectation is an entertaining and competitive encounter, with attacking contributions from both teams and limited separation on the final result.
What matters before kick-off
Real Salt Lake's winless run
Real Salt Lake enters the match against the New England Revolution on a club-record 13-game winless run in MLS play.
Head-to-head history in Utah
The New England Revolution has not defeated Real Salt Lake in Utah since July 2007.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.