Match intelligence

Real Madrid — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 26.08.2026

League: LaLiga (Spain) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Real Madrid4
:
1Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Locked signal W1 Probability 80.5% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 80.5% Home win Real Madrid
X 13.2% Draw
W2 6.3% Away win Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X94.1%
Both teams to score
No50.6%
Totals 2.5
Over72.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X94.1%
1289.2%
X216.8%
Both teams to scoreYes/No49.4% / 50.6%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.8% / 2.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 89.1% / 10.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 72.9% / 27.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 52.4% / 47.6%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 33.0% / 67.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 18.3% / 81.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Real Madrid × Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.2%
0:1 1.7%
0:2 0.6%
0:3 0.1%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 7.0%
1:1 5.0%
1:2 1.9%
1:3 0.5%
1:4 0.1%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 10.6%
2:1 7.7%
2:2 2.8%
2:3 0.7%
2:4 0.1%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 10.8%
3:1 7.9%
3:2 2.9%
3:3 0.7%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 8.2%
4:1 6.0%
4:2 2.2%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 5.0%
5:1 3.7%
5:2 1.3%
5:3 0.3%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
3:010.8%
2:010.6%
4:08.2%
3:17.9%
2:17.7%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 26.08.2026

Real Madrid

7th place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
  • 23.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 4:2
  • 17.05.2026 away Sevilla 1:0
  • 14.05.2026 home Oviedo 2:0
  • 10.05.2026 away Barcelona 0:2

Real Sociedad San Sebastian

19th place · 0 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 21.08.2026 away Betis 0:1
  • 23.05.2026 away Espanol 1:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Valencia 3:4
  • 14.05.2026 away Girona 1:1
  • 09.05.2026 home Betis 2:2

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Real Madrid wins6
Draws0
Real Sociedad San Sebastian wins0
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
  • 14.02.2026 Real Madrid 4:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 13.09.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:2 Real Madrid
  • 24.05.2025 Real Madrid 2:0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 14.09.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:2 Real Madrid
  • 26.04.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:1 Real Madrid
  • 17.09.2023 Real Madrid 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Real Madrid enter this LaLiga fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage over Real Sociedad San Sebastian. The overall scoring outlook is also high, suggesting a match in which Real Madrid are expected to create the more dangerous attacking situations and exert sustained pressure. That profile points toward a game shaped by the hosts’ ability to control territory and turn pressure into chances.

Real Sociedad San Sebastian still have a route into the contest, particularly if they can remain compact and make the most of their opportunities in transition. However, the assessment does not establish a clear expectation that both teams will score, with that question viewed as evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1, all of which reflect a match leaning toward Real Madrid while leaving some room for a competitive response from Real Sociedad San Sebastian.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Rescheduled Matchday 1 fixture

The August 26, 2026 match at Santiago Bernabéu between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad is a rescheduled Matchday 1 fixture in LaLiga.

Team news

Real Madrid's previous result

Real Madrid opened their new LaLiga campaign with a 2-1 away victory against Espanyol.

Team news

Real Sociedad's previous result

Real Sociedad suffered a 1-0 loss to Real Betis in their opening match of the league season.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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