Real Madrid — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 26.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 89.2% | |
| X2 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.08.2026
Real Madrid
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
- 23.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 4:2
- 17.05.2026 away Sevilla 1:0
- 14.05.2026 home Oviedo 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
19th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.08.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 23.05.2026 away Espanol 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Valencia 3:4
- 14.05.2026 away Girona 1:1
- 09.05.2026 home Betis 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Real Madrid 4:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 13.09.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:2 Real Madrid
- 24.05.2025 Real Madrid 2:0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 14.09.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:2 Real Madrid
- 26.04.2024 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:1 Real Madrid
- 17.09.2023 Real Madrid 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Madrid enter this LaLiga fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage over Real Sociedad San Sebastian. The overall scoring outlook is also high, suggesting a match in which Real Madrid are expected to create the more dangerous attacking situations and exert sustained pressure. That profile points toward a game shaped by the hosts’ ability to control territory and turn pressure into chances.
Real Sociedad San Sebastian still have a route into the contest, particularly if they can remain compact and make the most of their opportunities in transition. However, the assessment does not establish a clear expectation that both teams will score, with that question viewed as evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1, all of which reflect a match leaning toward Real Madrid while leaving some room for a competitive response from Real Sociedad San Sebastian.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled Matchday 1 fixture
The August 26, 2026 match at Santiago Bernabéu between Real Madrid and Real Sociedad is a rescheduled Matchday 1 fixture in LaLiga.
Real Madrid's previous result
Real Madrid opened their new LaLiga campaign with a 2-1 away victory against Espanyol.
Real Sociedad's previous result
Real Sociedad suffered a 1-0 loss to Real Betis in their opening match of the league season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
