FC Barcelona — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 27.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.5% |
| 12 | 88.3% | |
| X2 | 18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.1% / 65.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 27.08.2026
FC Barcelona
6th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Elche 5:0
- 23.05.2026 away Valencia 1:3
- 17.05.2026 home Betis 3:1
- 13.05.2026 away Alaves 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Real Madrid 2:0
Athletic Bilbao
19th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Sevilla 1:3
- 23.05.2026 away Real Madrid 2:4
- 17.05.2026 home Celta 1:1
- 13.05.2026 away Espanol 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Valencia 0:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.03.2026 Athletic Bilbao 0:1 FC Barcelona
- 22.11.2025 FC Barcelona 4:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 25.05.2025 Athletic Bilbao 0:3 FC Barcelona
- 24.08.2024 FC Barcelona 2:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 03.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao 0:0 FC Barcelona
- 22.10.2023 FC Barcelona 1:0 Athletic Bilbao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Barcelona meet Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga on 27 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the home side a clear advantage and high confidence in that view. The match is rated as potentially high-scoring, suggesting that FC Barcelona’s attacking strength could shape the contest if they establish control early. Athletic Bilbao will need to remain compact and disciplined while finding enough opportunities to disrupt the hosts’ rhythm.
The expectation is not that both teams scoring is a defined outcome, but rather a balanced possibility. That leaves room for a match in which FC Barcelona control the game without necessarily allowing Athletic Bilbao many clear chances. The most likely scorelines listed are 3-0, 2-0 and 3-1, all pointing toward a home victory while allowing for different levels of resistance from Athletic Bilbao. Overall, the analysis indicates a strong position for FC Barcelona, with the main uncertainty surrounding whether the visitors can contribute to what may be an open game.
What matters before kick-off
Athletic Club squad absences
Athletic Club defender Yuri Berchiche misses the match through suspension following a red card against Sevilla. The Basque side is also without injured defenders Daniel Vivian and Unai Eguiluz.
Recent LaLiga results
FC Barcelona started their LaLiga campaign with a 5-0 victory away against Elche. Athletic Club suffered a 3-1 home loss against Sevilla.
FC Barcelona squad status
FC Barcelona midfielder Frenkie de Jong remains sidelined with a knee injury. Meanwhile, summer signing Rodri returned to full training after recovering from a back issue.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.