Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.7% / 20.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian have a slight edge over Espanyol Barcelona in this LaLiga meeting, with a high level of confidence behind that assessment. The outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the home side carrying the stronger overall position while Espanyol Barcelona remain capable of making the game difficult.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, and whether both teams find the net is finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win or a controlled Real Sociedad San Sebastian victory, while a draw is also a credible possibility. That combination suggests a match in which margins may be small: Real Sociedad San Sebastian could have enough to claim the result, but Espanyol Barcelona should not be discounted. The central prediction signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat, with the game likely decided by efficiency in the key moments rather than a clear difference in attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Leandro Cabrera suspension
Espanyol defender Leandro Cabrera is unavailable for the match against Real Sociedad as he serves the third and final game of his suspension.
Recent league results
Heading into matchday three of La Liga, both Real Sociedad and Espanyol suffered defeats against Real Madrid in their previous fixtures.
Real Sociedad head-to-head streak
Real Sociedad remain unbeaten in their last seven head-to-head encounters with Espanyol.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.