Match intelligence

Real Sociedad San Sebastian — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026

League: LaLiga (Spain) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Real Sociedad San Sebastian2
:
1Espanyol Barcelona
Locked signal 1X Probability 79.6% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 53.7% Home win Real Sociedad San Sebastian
X 25.8% Draw
W2 20.4% Away win Espanyol Barcelona
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X79.6%
Both teams to score
Yes56.2%
Totals 2.5
Over54.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X79.6%
1274.2%
X246.3%
Both teams to scoreYes/No56.2% / 43.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 92.9% / 7.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.7% / 20.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 54.9% / 45.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 32.6% / 67.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.5% / 83.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.2% / 92.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Real Sociedad San Sebastian × Espanyol Barcelona
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 7.1%
0:1 4.5%
0:2 3.1%
0:3 1.1%
0:4 0.3%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 8.8%
1:1 12.3%
1:2 5.7%
1:3 2.0%
1:4 0.5%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 9.3%
2:1 9.9%
2:2 5.2%
2:3 1.8%
2:4 0.5%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 5.6%
3:1 6.0%
3:2 3.2%
3:3 1.1%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 2.6%
4:1 2.7%
4:2 1.4%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.9%
5:1 1.0%
5:2 0.5%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:19.9%
2:09.3%
1:08.8%
0:07.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026

Real Sociedad San Sebastian

19th place · 0 pts after 2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 26.08.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
  • 21.08.2026 away Betis 0:1
  • 23.05.2026 away Espanol 1:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Valencia 3:4
  • 14.05.2026 away Girona 1:1

Espanyol Barcelona

9th place · 3 pts after 2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 home Real Madrid 1:2
  • 16.08.2026 home Levante 3:0
  • 23.05.2026 home Sociedad 1:1
  • 17.05.2026 away Osasuna 2:1
  • 13.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 2:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Real Sociedad San Sebastian wins4
Draws2
Espanyol Barcelona wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 23.05.2026 Espanyol Barcelona 1:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 24.08.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2:2 Espanyol Barcelona
  • 09.02.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2:1 Espanyol Barcelona
  • 24.08.2024 Espanyol Barcelona 0:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 13.02.2023 Espanyol Barcelona 2:3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
  • 18.09.2022 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 2:1 Espanyol Barcelona

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Real Sociedad San Sebastian have a slight edge over Espanyol Barcelona in this LaLiga meeting, with a high level of confidence behind that assessment. The outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the home side carrying the stronger overall position while Espanyol Barcelona remain capable of making the game difficult.

The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, and whether both teams find the net is finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow home win or a controlled Real Sociedad San Sebastian victory, while a draw is also a credible possibility. That combination suggests a match in which margins may be small: Real Sociedad San Sebastian could have enough to claim the result, but Espanyol Barcelona should not be discounted. The central prediction signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat, with the game likely decided by efficiency in the key moments rather than a clear difference in attacking output.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Leandro Cabrera suspension

Espanyol defender Leandro Cabrera is unavailable for the match against Real Sociedad as he serves the third and final game of his suspension.

Schedule

Recent league results

Heading into matchday three of La Liga, both Real Sociedad and Espanyol suffered defeats against Real Madrid in their previous fixtures.

Match fact

Real Sociedad head-to-head streak

Real Sociedad remain unbeaten in their last seven head-to-head encounters with Espanyol.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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