Sevilla FC — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 49.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 77.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Sevilla FC
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Ath Bilbao 3:1
- 15.08.2026 home Vallecano 2:1
- 23.05.2026 away Celta 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Real Madrid 0:1
- 13.05.2026 away Villarreal 3:2
Atletico Madrid
7th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 19.08.2026 home Malaga 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Villarreal 1:5
- 17.05.2026 home Girona 1:0
- 12.05.2026 away Osasuna 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Sevilla FC 2:1 Atletico Madrid
- 01.11.2025 Atletico Madrid 3:0 Sevilla FC
- 06.04.2025 Sevilla FC 1:2 Atletico Madrid
- 08.12.2024 Atletico Madrid 4:3 Sevilla FC
- 11.02.2024 Sevilla FC 1:0 Atletico Madrid
- 23.12.2023 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Sevilla FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sevilla FC host Atletico Madrid in LaLiga on 29 August, with the available assessment giving Atletico Madrid a slight edge. The visitors appear better placed to avoid defeat, although the overall balance does not point to a one-sided contest. Sevilla FC should still have a realistic opportunity to stay competitive, particularly if they can keep the game controlled and prevent Atletico Madrid from dictating the tempo.
The match is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring rather than an open goal fest. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, so that aspect remains finely balanced. A draw is a credible possibility, but the stronger analytical lean is toward Atletico Madrid, especially in a result market that favours the visitors avoiding defeat. The likely match pattern is therefore a close, controlled encounter in which small details could determine whether Sevilla FC secure a point or Atletico Madrid take all three.
What matters before kick-off
Atletico Madrid's First Away Match of the Season
The Matchday 3 LaLiga fixture against Sevilla at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Stadium serves as Atletico Madrid's first away match of the 2026/27 season.
Strong Season Start for Sevilla
Sevilla opened their league campaign with back-to-back victories, defeating Rayo Vallecano 2-1 and Athletic Club 3-1.
Julio Díaz Faces Former Club
Sevilla left-back Julio Díaz, who recently made his official club debut against Athletic Club, became the 42nd player to represent both teams after joining from Atletico Madrid.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.