RC Celta de Vigo — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.6% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
RC Celta de Vigo
15th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.08.2026 home Osasuna 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Valencia 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Osasuna 0:0
- 23.05.2026 home Sevilla 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Ath Bilbao 1:1
Athletic Bilbao
20th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Sevilla 1:3
- 23.05.2026 away Real Madrid 2:4
- 17.05.2026 home Celta 1:1
- 13.05.2026 away Espanol 0:2
This season: RC Celta de Vigo at home vs Athletic Bilbao away
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo · at home | Athletic Bilbao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| xG against per match | 2.68 | 3.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Athletic Bilbao 1:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 14.12.2025 RC Celta de Vigo 2:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 19.01.2025 RC Celta de Vigo 1:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 22.09.2024 Athletic Bilbao 3:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 15.05.2024 RC Celta de Vigo 2:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 10.11.2023 Athletic Bilbao 4:3 RC Celta de Vigo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
RC Celta de Vigo and Athletic Bilbao meet in LaLiga on 30 August 2026 in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. The matchup points toward a medium-scoring game, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced.
The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty. A 1:1 draw is one of the central scenarios, while a goalless game and a narrow 1:2 victory for Athletic Bilbao are also considered possible. The X2 signal indicates some support for Athletic Bilbao avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the prospect of a draw. RC Celta de Vigo should therefore be expected to remain competitive, while Athletic Bilbao may have a slight practical edge in the range of outcomes that do not favour the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Marcos Alonso suspended
Celta Vigo defender Marcos Alonso is unavailable to face Athletic Bilbao after receiving a red card in the second half of their previous match against Osasuna.
Recent results leading into the match
Celta Vigo collected one point from their opening two La Liga fixtures following a 0-0 draw against Valencia and a 2-1 defeat to Osasuna. Athletic Bilbao enter the match after a 2-0 away loss to Barcelona.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.