RC Celta de Vigo — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.6% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
RC Celta de Vigo and Athletic Bilbao meet in LaLiga on 30 August 2026 in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. The matchup points toward a medium-scoring game, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced.
The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty. A 1:1 draw is one of the central scenarios, while a goalless game and a narrow 1:2 victory for Athletic Bilbao are also considered possible. The X2 signal indicates some support for Athletic Bilbao avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the prospect of a draw. RC Celta de Vigo should therefore be expected to remain competitive, while Athletic Bilbao may have a slight practical edge in the range of outcomes that do not favour the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Marcos Alonso suspended
Celta Vigo defender Marcos Alonso is unavailable to face Athletic Bilbao after receiving a red card in the second half of their previous match against Osasuna.
Recent results leading into the match
Celta Vigo collected one point from their opening two La Liga fixtures following a 0-0 draw against Valencia and a 2-1 defeat to Osasuna. Athletic Bilbao enter the match after a 2-0 away loss to Barcelona.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.